中日关系:不进则退
众所周知,本月中旬日本新上任半年有余的首相菅义伟将去美国拜见新总统拜登。由于是拜登上任后第一个接见的外国首脑,菅义伟为此感到很荣幸。
这次日美首脑会谈的内容大致如下:1.缔结日美“有关气候变化的合作协定”;2.讨论应对新冠病毒的措施及疫苗接种问题;3.商讨尖端技术开发以及构筑稳定的零部件供给网问题;4.日美关心的下列问题:“美国担心的中国发动军事进攻的台湾问题”;所谓的涉港涉疆“侵犯人权”问题;中国出台海警法问题;日美安保条约第5条适用于钓鱼岛问题;缅甸军事政变问题;北朝鲜绑架日本人和应对北朝鲜导弹发射实验问题。对此,日美双方能否达成一致并发表联合声明不得而知,但日美两国各怀目的互相利用却是事实。
本来,日美两国政府都应该很忙。但却“闲来无事”,时刻盯着中国。
美国政府应对“新冠”不利,百姓遭殃,近60万人的生命被活活夺走。这个数字大概比美国在两次世界打仗以及朝鲜战争、越南战争、海湾战争以及伊拉克战争中死难人数的总和还要多!但是拜登政府却不顾后院起火,“忘我地”将目光投向中国,在世界范围内拉帮结伙,“群殴”中国。
日本政府也是面对疫情后的经济衰退和企业倒闭,一筹莫展。三无(无派阀、无资金、非世袭)首相菅义伟率领安倍操控下的“影子内阁”艰难出征。由于安倍不愿意看到党内“政敌”石破茂在总裁选举中获胜,便运作“密室政治”,戏剧性地使菅义伟得到了自民党七大派阀中五个派阀的支持,用“非常选举方法”(即拒绝全体地方党员投票)让菅义伟得以成为日本第99届首相。菅义伟接班实际上是完成安倍剩余的任期,其“看守内阁”特色明显,正如自民党干事长二阶俊博所言:“安倍之后还是安倍”。
本来,武汉疫情期间,来自日本人民的关心和帮助,极大地提升了两国民众之间的信赖感。中国政府与民间都怀着“报恩”之心等待日本疫情解除之后,为日本经济的发展助一臂之力。但是,日本政府似乎对改善中日关系并不积极。安倍在下台前一周,积极推出“先发制人攻击敌方基地”的防卫政策主张,又将自己的亲弟弟放到菅内阁防卫大臣的位置上。拜登上台后,美国政府一改“单边主义”,直接拉帮结伙,企图围堵中国,阻碍中华民族的复兴和亚洲的崛起。日本菅政权则尾随其后,不顾来之不易的改善中日关系的局面与契机,在涉及中国国家核心利益的台湾问题和领土问题上挑战中国的底线,成为亚洲内部的“麻烦制造者”。
日美究竟想在亚洲干什么?二战结束70多年了,美国还赖在亚洲不走。自己力不从心,就怂恿盟国当炮灰,并离间亚洲国家,破坏亚洲团结,以获鱼翁之利。美国搅乱了中东与东欧,又将魔掌伸向亚洲。
1945年8月30日,当麦克阿瑟抵达日本神奈川县厚木机场时,日本似乎就成了美国版图延伸到远东的“边界”。一部战后日本政治史同时也就成了一部战后日美关系史。冷战形成后,美国出于自己东亚战略的考虑,急忙与日本片面讲和并将其纳入美国东亚安全战略的框架之中,对日政策也由肢解日本变为扶持日本。美国打着联合国旗号占领了日本,并在亚太地区取得霸权地位,1951年9月“日美安保条约”签订,并于次年生效。
从条约的内容看,日本只是一个半独立国家。安保条约确认美国陆海空三军驻留日本,但却不提美国应尽保卫日本的义务。在麦克阿瑟授意下制定的《日本国宪法》,确立了日本放弃武装、实施民主并走和平道路的国家发展方向。以“重经济、轻武装、日美安保”为特征的“吉田路线”成为日本“战后体制”的根本,吉田路线确实使日本在短期内摆脱了战败国地位并回归国际社会。
不过,重视日本独立与自尊的“非主流保守派”鸠山一郎接任首相后对日美安保条约提出挑战。他积极主张修改宪法,修复与苏联的关系,与以吉田茂为首亲美反共的“主流保守派”相抗衡,并立志摆脱“对美从属”地位。
“日美安保条约”即我们常说的“日美同盟”,它既是战后日本外交安保政策制定的基础,又是美国强加在日本头上的紧箍咒。我曾就“日美同盟”问题请教过日本史学界泰斗三谷太一郎教授,他回答我说:“不存在日美同盟”。确实,“同盟”关系应建立在对等的基础之上,双方互相承担责任和义务。美军在冲绳胡作非为,却得不到应有的惩罚,说“治外法权”丧失并不为过。“日美地位协定”更使日本“殖民地”特色尽显,难怪日本说自己不是“正常国家”。
其实,日本新宪法与日美安保条约从一开始就存在着内部扭曲现象。日美安保条约要求日本重新武装,但是,日本新宪法不允许日本拥有军队。这是美国对日政策前后矛盾所致,也是吉田茂想一箭双雕,既让美国放心又不花钱搞军备的结果。时至今日,这种内在矛盾仍未得到解决。美国人说日本“白搭车”,不理解为何要保护日本。日本人对向美国提供基地和“温情预算”愤愤不满。新宪法与安保条约之间的二律背反为日本“战后体制”的崩溃以及日美同盟关系的质变埋下伏笔。
60年代初,在声势浩大的反对续签“日美安保条约”的斗争中,时任日本首相岸信介企图在日美安保条约框架内使日本利益得到伸展,续签了安保条约,也终于写进了美国“保护日本”的字样,这就是所谓的“日美安保条约第5条”。这次菅义伟与拜登会谈的内容之一就是想在“日美安保条约第5条”适用于钓鱼岛问题上与美国达成共识,日美两国企图私下拿中国的领土做交易,可笑至极。
日本实现了“经济大国”的战略目标后,在80年代提出了使日本成为“政治大国”的战略目标。以中曾根康弘为首的“新保守派”发誓要对日本政治进行“战后总决算”,日本的军费开支也在中曾根内阁时期首次超过了GDP的1%。冷战结束后,日美共同的“假想敌”苏联解体,日本政界、学界、军界产生了一股“脱美”倾向。1997年一纸日美合作“新指针”将日本拉回日美安保框架当中。1999年日本通过“周边事态法”,2003年又通过了“有事法”,其目的就是想走出国界,将“专守防卫”变为“动态防卫”,改变战后日本防卫政策的实质内容。2005年年初,日美“2+2会谈”将台海地区作为其“共同战略目标”。
安倍晋三担任日本首相后,完全继承了其外公的政治DNA。他虽然口喊要“捣毁战后体制”,但却不敢挑战美国,只想在日美安保条约框架内求得日本利益的最大化。安倍提出了使日本成为“军事大国”的战略目标,并不惜“解释修宪”,同时推出所谓的“价值观外交”和“积极的和平主义”,企图讨好美国,“借船出海”,到“地球的另一边”。美国答应日本“安保条约第5条”适用于钓鱼岛是手段,逼日本在东亚替自己当“马前卒”才是目的。近一个月来,日美两国在干涉中国内政,尤其是在台湾问题上勾结不断,日本被美国“带着节奏跑”。此次菅义伟访美,两国试图在台湾问题上达成共识,甚至发表联合声明,中日关系面临严峻考验!
日本国内政局也是瞬息万变,如果在野党6月中旬国会闭会之前对内阁提出“不信任案”,那么,今年9月自民党总裁选举之前,众议院解散实施大选就被提到议事日程。因此,菅义伟为了保住自己的首相宝座,借访美之机奋力一搏也在情理之中。只是“过渡消费中国”,损害东亚地区政治经济利益,他是否能如愿继续执政令人怀疑。
21世纪国际关系格局的最大变动将是东方的复兴与崛起以及西方的应对与适应,东西方文明的冲突与融合相交织将谱写一首本世纪“令人心仪”的交响曲,晚了一个世纪到场的中国能否成为这个交响乐团的“领衔演奏者”之一引人关注。东亚的崛起将对21世纪国际关系新格局与世界新秩序的形成发挥重大影响,无疑,也会对美国的东亚战略以及日美同盟关系提出挑战。“亚洲是亚洲人的亚洲”,外来势力在亚洲横行霸道的时代已经结束!(作者:中国社会科学院日本研究所研究员 王屏)
Suga's US visit challenges Japan-China ties
By Wang Ping | China Daily | Updated: 2021-04-16
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's scheduled meeting with US President Joe Biden in Washington on Friday, the US leader's first face-to-face talks with another country's leader since taking office in January, is aimed at rebuilding the US-Japan alliance which was strained due to previous US president Donald Trump's "America first" policy.
Since Biden has sought to rebuild the United States' ties with its allies that suffered a setback during Trump's presidency, he may seek to use strengthened US-Japan ties to inject new vitality into Washington's alliances with other countries. But the strengthening of US-Japan alliance and the Japanese government's decision on Tuesday to dump radioactive water from the disabled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in two years, which is a direct threat to the marine environment and public health in Japan and neighboring countries including China, may make it more difficult for China-Japan relations to return to normal.
In the US, on the other hand, the novel coronavirus pandemic had claimed more than 560,000 lives by the end of March due mainly to the government's reckless response. The US' coronavirus death toll is higher than its combined toll in World War II, Vietnam War and the Iraq War. Yet the Biden administration has chosen to strengthen the US' alliances, with an eye on China, instead of intensifying the domestic fight against the virus.
Japan was already mired in economic recession, thanks to the impact of the pandemic, when Suga assumed power in September. Known as a "shadow" prime minister and the right-hand man of predecessor Shinzo Abe, Suga said he would strive to complete Abe's unfinished work.
Last year, when the Chinese government and people thanked the Japanese government and the country's private sector for the help in fight against the pandemic, the Abe administration, instead making efforts to further improve bilateral ties, said Japan should develop the ability to strike at foreign missile-launch sites to deter potential attacks against the country.
As for the Suga administration, it has been helping the US to contain China's rise, by interfering in the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan question. Perhaps the US is strengthening its alliance with Japan so it can use it as a pawn in its strategic maneuvers that include containing China. And by allowing the US to use it as a pawn, Japan has become a "troublemaker" in Asia.
As part of its pivot to Asia strategy, which former US president Barack Obama launched, the US is resorting to long-arm jurisdiction to drive a wedge between other Asian countries and China, and as one of the US' allies in the region, Japan has been trying to balance its relations with its suzerain, the US, and its largest neighbor and trade partner, China.
The US-Japan alliance has its roots in Japan's surrender in 1945 which ended World War II. Japan was under US military occupation for seven years. The two allies have close security cooperation under the framework of the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty, which was signed in 1951 and upgraded subsequently.
Under the treaty, the two countries are obliged to "individually and in cooperation with each other... maintain and develop... their capacities to resist armed attack", and assist each other in case of "an armed attack against either party in territories" under the Japanese administration. But Japan cannot come to the defense of the US because its Constitution forbids it to send armed forces overseas.
During the Cold War, the US shifted its strategic focus on East Asia, and Japan became one of its closest allies in the world, which has been a hurdle in the smooth development of Sino-Japanese ties. Japan further strengthened its alliance with the US at the turn of this century and illegally "nationalized" China's Diaoyu Islands in 2012. Also, the US and Japan are in discussion to include a statement on China's Taiwan island in a joint statement likely to be released after the Biden-Suga summit on Friday.
This is not the first time that Japan has publicly supported the US on the Taiwan question. In a joint statement issued after the recent meeting between the US secretaries of state and defense and the Japanese foreign and defense ministers, the two countries "underscored the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait".
The US is aware that it can hardly check China's rise on its own, so it wants its allies, including Japan, to gang up with it against China. The US has pledged to defend Japan, while Japan has coordinated with the US to bolster the latter's strategies. Japan has collaborated with the US to further its Asia-Pacific strategy since the Abe era, and the Suga administration's cooperation with the US is a continuation of that practice.
Besides, Suga's term as the prime minister ends in September, and to win the next election, he needs to lean to the US to seek more security guarantees. It is due to the above factors that Sino-Japan relations are facing daunting challenges.
The biggest change in international relations has been brought about by the rise and revitalization of East Asia and the Western powers' need to adapt to this change. The cultural integration of the two can give rise to a global "symphony orchestra". And whether the West likes it or not, China will be an increasingly important player in that orchestra. The rise of East Asia will contribute to the building of a new world order, challenging the Japan-US alliance and the US' strategies in this region. Asia is first and foremost for Asian people, and the time for outside forces to bully Asian countries and people is over.
The author is a researcher in Japanese studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily. If you have a specific expertise and would like to contribute to China Daily, please contact us at opinion@chinadaily.com.cn, and comment@chinadaily.com.cn.
(该文发表在2021年4月16日《中国日报》评论版)